As the UK accelerates toward its legally-binding net zero target by 2050, the Climate Change Committee’s 7th Carbon Budget reveals a strategic but evolving role for biomass in Britain’s energy transition. Biomass emerges as a targeted solution in a diverse decarbonisation portfolio.
The report states that UK emissions in 2023 were about half of 1990 levels, with reductions accelerating since carbon budgets began in 2008 – driven by coal phase-out and renewables. By mid-Seventh Carbon Budget, emissions could fall to just a quarter of today’s levels, requiring major cuts across transport, buildings, industry, and agriculture.
Strategic shift to domestic production
The UK’s biomass strategy is set for a fundamental transformation – moving away from imported feedstocks toward homegrown resources. By 2040, domestic sources are projected to supply approximately 85% of the UK’s bioenergy needs, with imports declining to near-zero by 2050. This shift addresses both sustainability concerns and enhances energy security by reducing dependence on international supply chains.
The Committee’s “Balanced Pathway” envisions domestic biomass supply growing to around 100 TWh by 2040, significantly driven by increased production of perennial energy crops – particularly Miscanthus, short rotation coppice, and short rotation forestry.
From marginal to mainstream: Energy crop expansion
Currently, energy crop cultivation remains minimal across the UK with only about 13,000 hectares devoted to Miscanthus and short rotation coppice. However, the pathway calls for dramatic expansion to 0.7 million hectares of energy crops by 2050 – approximately 3% of total UK land area. This represents a transformative opportunity for agricultural diversification, particularly as traditional farming faces pressures to reduce emissions.
The Committee highlights that these energy crops will deliver dual benefits – both as feedstock for energy generation and through carbon sequestration in soils and root systems.
Biomass with CCS: A critical emissions removal technology
Perhaps most significantly, the Budget positions Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) as the dominant engineered carbon removal solution, accounting for 89% of engineered removals by 2040. The deployment timeline is ambitious but staggered by sector, beginning between 2028 and 2035 depending on technological readiness.
By 2040, BECCS is expected to deliver annual carbon removals of 19 million tonnes CO₂-equivalent, scaling up to 25 million tonnes by 2050. These removals will be critical to balance residual emissions from hard-to-decarbonize sectors, particularly aviation.
Strategic application of limited resources
With sustainable bioenergy resources acknowledged as finite, the Committee emphasizes the importance of directing biomass to its highest-value applications. By 2050, almost all biomass use is expected to incorporate CCS technology, delivering both fossil fuel displacement and negative emissions.
Priority applications include:
- Industrial processes with CCS
- Sustainable aviation fuel production
- Hydrogen production
- Electricity generation
- Energy-from-waste facilities
Notably, the pathway shows a declining role for biomass in surface transport as electrification becomes increasingly viable. Similarly, biogas blending into the gas grid is viewed as transitional, declining as heating electrification progresses.
A recalibrated vision
The total bioenergy supply projected in this Budget is around half the level assumed in the 6th Carbon Budget. This reduction reflects cautious assumptions around tree planting rates, revised estimates of forestry residue availability, and increasing scrutiny of biomass imports. This underlines the need to highlight sustainable domestic supply potential and the sector’s role in supporting climate and biodiversity goals.
Biomass still contributes 7% of total emissions reductions by 2040 – demonstrating its targeted but essential role in the UK’s decarbonisation journey.
As the nation progresses toward Net Zero, the biomass sector faces both challenge and opportunity, called upon to rapidly scale domestic production while pioneering innovative carbon capture applications that maximise climate benefit from limited resources.
Read the Climate Change Committee’s 7th Carbon Budget here.
